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Economic sanctions are the central tool of economic coercion, yet their effects on state-to-state lending remain largely unclear. This study argues that sanctions reduce bilateral official lending from sanctioning to sanctioned states. It also contends that third-party states adjust lending based on their economic and political ties: those more exposed to the sanctioning state tend to reduce bilateral lending, while those more exposed to the sanctioned state often increase it. Using sanctions data from the Global Sanctions Database and lending data from the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics, the study analyzes 120 emerging and developing countries since the end of the ColdWar. Gravity and event study models reveal that sanctions lower bilateral official lending by around 25% on average, with reductions of 30–35% over the medium to long term. These findings contribute to broader debates on the growing use of sanctions and the rising geopolitical fragmentation of global capital flows.

This study examines the effect of foreign aid projects on subnational economic recovery after civil wars. The central argument is that foreign aid projects foster regional economic recovery by rebuilding economic infrastructure, improving social infrastructure, and stimulating the productive sectors of the economy. To test this theoretical argument, the study combines geocoded data on aid projects from the World Bank, China, the United States, and 18 European donors with granular data on nightlight intensity. The analysis covers 40,687 subnational regions across 151 countries, with annual data from 1995 to 2020. The regression results show that regions receiving foreign aid after civil wars experience higher nightlight intensity, indicating stronger economic recovery. These effects are particularly pronounced for aid projects targeting social infrastructure and production sectors, and for aid projects provided by the United States and the World Bank. Further analysis reveals that democratic institutions enhance the effectiveness of aid in post-conflict areas, while prolonged civil wars in the past and postwar violence diminish its effectiveness.

Several destructive earthquakes have occurred throughout the African continent over the past century. However, few comprehensive …

In recent decades, hundreds of studies have covered seismic vulnerability assessment and the derivation of fragility models. However, …

This study uses data from the United States Household Pulse Survey to fit predictive models for displacement duration and return after disasters. Three predictive models are proposed, which range in complexity and predictive power. The leading contributors to different duration and return outcomes are also explored. These models can be integrated within disaster risk analyses, as illustrated through a hurricane scenario analysis for Atlantic City, NJ.

In the aftermath of an earthquake, the number of residents whose housing was destroyed is often used to approximate the number of people displaced (i.e., rendered homeless) after the event. This study benchmarks this conventional approach against officially reported impacts and data-driven estimates using mobile location data for three recent earthquakes in Haiti, Japan, and Nepal.

This review paper synthesizes the current literature on disaster-induced displacement, including key terminology and context, the determinants of household return decisions, existing model-based approaches, and opportunities for future research.

The global building exposure model is a mosaic of local and regional models with information regarding the residential, commercial, and …

Several destructive natural hazards have occurred throughout Africa over the past century, yet few comprehensive exposure models exist …

The spatial resolution of exposure data has a substantial impact on the accuracy and reliability of seismic risk estimates. While …